Feasibility study on Kvarken Fixed Connection complete

According to the recently completed feasibility study, the Kvarken Fixed Connection is technically feasible. There are several methods to implement such a connection. Initial estimates show that construction would cost around EUR 5-29 billion, depending on the method. A decision to build any type of Kvarken Fixed Connection has not been made.

To summarise the results of the feasibility study:

• The Kvarken Fixed Connection is technically feasible to construct.
• Implementation methods include causeways and bridges, a tunnel, or a combination thereof.
• Forecasts show that traffic volumes on such a connection would remain moderate.
• The connection would create a new backup route between Finland and Sweden.
• The connection would provide opportunities for energy transfer and military mobility.
• The Fixed Connection would have a negative impact on nature and shipping lanes.
• The connection would not open until the 2040s at the earliest.

The Kvarken Fixed Connection is technically feasible, but difficult, to construct

There are several feasible solutions. The connection could be a road, a railway, or a combination thereof. There are six implementation options in the feasibility study:

• Road (94 km, of which 30 km on mainland, 18 km on causeways and 46 km on bridges). Estimated cost EUR 4.9–8.4 billion.
   
• Road partially in tunnel (94 km, of which 30 km on the mainland, 18 km on causeways, 39 km on bridges and 7 km in a tunnel). Estimated cost EUR 6.2–10.5 billion.
   
• Railway (114 km, of which 53 km on mainland, 14 km on causeways and 47 km on bridges). Estimated cost EUR 5.5–9.3 billion.
   
• Railway partially in tunnel (114 km, of which 53 km on the mainland, 7 km on causeways, 39 km on bridges and 15 km in a tunnel). Estimated cost EUR 10.3–17.5 billion.
   
• Railway entirely in tunnel (105 km, of which 2 km on the mainland and 103 km in the tunnel). Estimated cost EUR 17–28.9 billion.
   
• Road/rail combination (114 km, 53 km on mainland, 7 km on causeways, 39 km on bridges and 15 km in tunnel). Estimated cost EUR 16.7–28.3 billion.

Download picture: Map of the implementation options for the Kvarken fixed connection discussed in the preliminary study.

Each option has its own advantages and disadvantages. From the user perspective, the road/rail combination would provide the largest number of options. From the cost perspective, a road without tunnels would carry the smallest cost. A fully tunnelled railway, on the other hand, would likely be the best option for the environment.

As similar projects do not exist anywhere in the world, there are many uncertainties in the cost estimates. Cost estimates include the cost of laying track and its electrical infrastructure and expert estimates. Where applicable, the costs have been compared with the actual costs of construction projects around the world.

According to forecasts, transport demand would be moderate

The feasibility study examined the need for the Kvarken Fixed Connection based on different traffic forecast models. The study also included various scenarios that could affect transport demand. These scenarios included a harbour closure and the impact of the toll on traffic volumes.

Forecasts showed that approximately 2,000–3,000 passenger vehicles and 500–600 freight vehicles would cross the Fixed Connection per day. The traffic volumes correspond to the typical traffic volumes on roads between Finland’s regional centres. According to the forecast, a railway connection between Vaasa and Umeå would see 1300–1400 passengers per day.

Advantages and disadvantages of the Kvarken Fixed Connection

The Kvarken Fixed Connection would be a significant new route between Finland and Sweden. It would significantly shorten the travel time between the cities of Vaasa and Umeå. It is likely that the route would be popular for leisure travel. The route would also be a new opportunity for military mobility and energy transfer. It could also be an attractive alternative for freight.

However, most freight between Finland and Sweden would be carried on ships, despite the fixed connection. Ship freight is generally the more cost-effective alternative to road or rail freight.

Being a major project, the construction of the Fixed Connection would carry negative environmental impacts. Kvarken is a region with has numerous nature reserves, a UNESCO World Heritage Area, and Natura 2000 sites. It would be possible to circumvent most of the protected areas in all the identified implementation options, but approximately 1.5 kilometres of the project would pass through a nature reserve. In addition, construction of the project would generate significant CO2 emissions.

The Kvarken Fixed Connection would also impact on shipping and winter navigation negatively. The shipping route would narrow considerably because of the connection. In addition, bridges and causeways could affect sea currents and ice movements.

Only the tunnel solution could completely circumvent the nature reserves. It would also not have any effect on shipping.

What is the progress of the Kvarken Fixed Connection plans?

Based on the feasibility study, the next step of the Kvarken Council is to examine funding models and the wider economic impacts of the Fixed Connection in an EU project.

Further planning of the Kvarken Fixed Connection is a political decision. If the project were to receive additional funding, its environmental impacts will require detailed examination. It would also require changes in master plans in both Finland and Sweden. The project could proceed through different planning stages (general plan, road and railway plan, construction plan) to construction so that the connection would open in the 2040s at the earliest.

Background of the feasibility study

In Petteri Orpo's Government Programme, it was decided to prepare a study on the proposed Kvarken Fixed Connection (between Vaasa and Umeå). The Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency prepared the feasibility study at the request of the Ministry of Transport and Communications. The feasibility study consisted of a needs assessment, a feasibility study, and a summary thereof.

“This has been a unique study, as there was not an existing model for it,” says Project Manager Aimo Huhdanmäki from the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency.

Preparation and steering of the project took place under cooperation and interaction with various authorities in Finland and Sweden. A cooperation group guided the project, consisting of representatives from the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency, Traficom, Sweden’s Trafikverket, the Ministry of the Environment and regional actors: the Kvarken Council, the Regional Council of Ostrobothnia, and Västerbotten in Sweden. Each sub-task had its own steering group consisting of representatives of the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency.

Other parties were heard in extensive group interviews, which were held early in the content planning stage of the study. The themes of the interviews during the preparatory phase were the general perspective of the administrative sector, expertise in engineering and geotechnology, impacts on maritime transport, perspective on security of supply and national defence, the environment, and regional perspectives.

WSP Finland Oy was the consultant for the feasibility study.

Further information

Kvarken Fixed Connection, Needs Assessment: Final report

Kvarken fixed connection feasibility study

Kvarken fixed connection: Summary

https://vayla.fi/en/kvarken-fixed-connection

Aimo Huhdanmäki
Land use and transport system specialist
Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency
tel. +358 29 534 3281
forename.surname(at)vayla.fi