Starting points for the study
In Petteri Orpo's Government Programme, it was decided to prepare a study on the proposed Kvarken fixed connection (between Vaasa and Umeå). At the request of the Ministry of Transport and Communications, the Finnish Transport Infrastructure Agency is responsible for preparing the feasibility study. The intention is to complete the study in spring 2025.
The planning will be based on previous studies on the Kvarken fixed connection.
Objectives of the plan
The aim of pre-planning is to find answers to questions such as:
- Why is the Kvarken fixed connection needed?
- What would be the impact of the Kvarken fixed connection?
- Is there a demand for both a rail and road connection?
- How much demand would there be for transport (passenger and freight)?
- Technical design, method of implementation, cost estimate of the fixed connection?
- Would the system be best constructed as an embankment, bridge, tunnel or a combination of these?
- Options for the location of the system, influenced by factors such as constructability, soil, sea depth, environmental impact and winter shipping conditions.
- Fixed connection and synergies for the future energy system?
- Project risks from different perspectives? For example, security of supply, construction and winter shipping.
- The Swedish Transport Administration and regional authorities will also be involved in the preparation of the plan.
- Once the feasibility study is complete, a roadmap, a proposed implementation path, will be drawn up describing the subsequent planning needs and the administrative and permit processes required for the project.
- A separate study will be carried out by the Kvarken Council on the financial arrangements for the implementation of the project.
Planning area
The planning area covers the route between Vaasa and Umeå across Kvarken.
Contents of the plan
The preliminary plan includes the following sub-studies:
- Needs assessment
- Feasibility study
- Project roadmap
- Summary and conclusions and proposals for the way forward
Project progress and schedule
Pre-planning has started in early 2024 by drawing up a work programme. The needs assessment and feasibility study were put out to tender, and WSP Finland was selected to carry them out. The reports are being prepared by a multidisciplinary team of experts from both Finland and Sweden. The feasibility will be completed in spring 2025.
New about planning
During autumn 2024, we have examined the transport demand and drawn up scenarios. We have also discussed the feasibility of the connection. Additional information below.
Scenarios
A total of five different scenarios have been drawn up on transport demand. The year examined in the scenarios is 2045. The dimensions varying in the scenarios are economic growth, the size of the population and the number of workplaces in the region as well as the available rail, road and port capacity. The comparative option is the current ferry connection and the so-called base forecast for transport demand.
• VE 0 (comparative option), Current ferry connection and base forecast for transport demand.
• VE 1, Fixed road and rail connection, base forecast for transport demand
• VE 2a, Strong economic and population growth and strong increase in the number of workplaces, only fixed road connection
• VE 2b, Strong economic and population growth and strong increase in the number of workplaces, only fixed rail connection
• VE 3, Strong economic and population growth and strong increase in the number of workplaces, no capacity restrictions in the rail network or ports in Sweden and Norway
• VE 4, Same as VE3, also closure of ports from HaminaKotka to Naantali
Transport demand
The tool used to estimate the goods transport demand has been the Samgods transport model of the Swedish Transport Administration. The transport model has been extended to cover Finland and data on Finland's foreign trade has been added to it by type of goods and by region. The volume of goods transport has then been estimated in the different future scenarios. The aim is to have an estimate of what proportion of Finland’s foreign trade could be moved to the Vaasa-Umeå route if a road, a railway or both were available for the connection.
The tool used in estimating the passenger transport demand has been the Samplers transport model of the Swedish Transport Administration. Correspondingly, the model of passenger transport has been extended to cover Finland and the transport demand was estimated in the different future scenarios.
However, it not possible to estimate everything merely by means of calculations based on the models. For example, the goods transport transiting through Sweden must be estimated separately and, as for passenger transport, the commuting between urban areas has also been examined with the help of reference urban areas in Sweden and Finland.
Calculations based on the transport models have provided preliminary estimates of the transport demand. Depending on the scenario, passenger car traffic between Vaasa and Umeå would be a few thousand vehicles a day. The volume is similar to the volume on other main roads outside urban areas in Finland. The analysis in the model also includes a scenario of strong economic development even though the actual wider economic impacts have not been estimated. It is estimated that 3,000–5,000 tons of goods transport would be transferred to the road network, which would mean roughly 1,000 heavy vehicles a day.
Based on the transport model, there would be 1,300–1,400 passengers a day in rail traffic between Vaasa and Umeå. Based on the transport model, a very small proportion of goods transports would be transferred to rail traffic. The reason for this would seem to be at least the restrictions in the Swedish rail network, the current affordable and efficient maritime transport and the difference in the track gauge.
Feasibility of the connection
Efforts have been made to outline the fixed connection to run in places where the sea is as shallow as possible. On the other hand, the aim has been to identify a route that would least harm nature and the cultural environment. At the Finnish end, the fixed connection could begin from the western parts of Replot in Korsholm In Sweden, the fixed connection would begin next to the Port of Umeå.
A few options will be sought for the connection. The choice of the options is affected by the starting points and boundary conditions of planning, such as technical feasibility, values related to nature and the cultural environment, sea routes, the size of the implementation costs, and the estimated transport demand.
The examinations have included an embankment, bridge and tunnel connection both as a road and a rail connection. Each implementation method has its pros and cons.
An embankment is a feasible solution when the sea depth is less than 10 metres. The construction and usage costs of an embankment are lower than those of a bridge or a tunnel. However, an embankment will divide the sea area in two and would have mainly negative hydrological impacts. The embankment will also cut off sea routes.
A bridge is needed if the sea depth is more than 10 meters. The clear headway of the bridge is usually 10 m. If a sea route needs to cross under the bridge, the clear headway would have to be increased to 65 metres above sea level. This would require an extremely long bridge of approximately 5 kilometres. A long bridge is not only very expensive, but also involves different safety issues related to weather conditions in the open sea, among other things.
The connection can also be implemented as a tunnel. The tunnel can be either bored into the bedrock as a so-called TBM tunnel or constructed by sinking concrete elements (an immersed tunnel).
A tunnel can also be implemented only for a part of the connection, for example, where it crosses a shipping lane. Tunnel entrances at sea require the construction of artificial islands. The distance between the tunnel bored and the seabed must be at least 40 metres. A trench must be excavated into the seabed for an immersed tunnel.
Boundary conditions for planning
Image: Boundary conditions for the planning of the Kvarken fixed connection, areas to be avoided on the basis of environmental values.
Image: Technical boundary conditions for the planning of the Kvarken fixed connection.
Options for implementing the Kvarken fixed connection
Six (6) different implementation options will be presented in the preliminary report. The properties of each option will be described, the most important impacts will be assessed and an estimated price range will be given.
Options to be considered:
- Road on the surface (embankments, low and high bridges)
- Road on the surface and in a tunnel (embankments, low bridges and immersed tunnel)
- Railway on the surface (embankments, low and high bridges)
- Railway on the surface and in a tunnel (embankments, low bridges and immersed tunnels)
- Railway as a long tunnel (TBM)
- A combination of road and railway (embankments, low bridges and immersed tunnel)
In all the options, the fixed road connection in Sweden would join road E12 directly by the Port of Umeå. The railway would join Sweden’s current railway network in Holmsund, in the immediate vicinity of the Port of Umeå. In Finland, the fixed connection would run via Söderudden in Korsholm towards the current bridge of Replot. The road connection would join the current regional road 724, but if the fixed connection is implemented, the quality level and classification of the road should be changed. The rail connection would avoid the most densely built areas and join Finland’s current rail network in the vicinity of the GigaVaasa industrial zone, where terminal facilities would also be required because of the track gauge difference. The long railway tunnel would become a tunnel by GigaVaasa and run to Umeå via the centre of Vaasa.